Pyongyang may have bet all its chips on its relationship with Moscow by committing the lives of its soldiers to fight for Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine, according to analysts.
North Korean soldiers are gearing up for an anticipated battle in the Russian border region of Kursk.
According to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine on Saturday, more than 7,000 North Korean soldiers in the front line near the border were armed with various weapons by Russia. They included 60 mm mortars, AK-12 rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.
Some North Korean soldiers in the region have already come under fire, according to a message that Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, posted on Telegram on Monday.
The U.S. estimates that 8,000 soldiers are in the Kursk Oblast to fight in front-line operations against Ukraine forces in the coming days.
“There is no more significant and long-term a commitment one country can make to another than sending troops at wartime,” Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told VOA.
“I never believed this was short term, at least from the North Korean perspective,” said Cha, who formerly served as the deputy head of the U.S. delegation to the Six Party Talks with North Korea.
Cha added that Kim could face many risks by deploying troops thousands of miles away from home and exposing them to fight alongside Russian soldiers.
“What if North Korean soldiers desert or are captured? What is the future of DPRK-Europe relations? What if South Korean weapons [supplied via the U.S to Ukraine thus far] kills North Korean soldiers? What if Ukraine makes a point of targeting North Korean soldiers for propaganda purposes?” he asked.
Long-term commitment
Cha, in an article CSIS published October 23, said that by sending troops, North Korea may have crossed the point of no return in its ties with Russia.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said during a news conference in Washington, held last week after a security meeting, that Seoul is looking to send a team to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops.
When Kim visited Russia last year and began sending munitions the same year, some analysts saw him as largely engaged in a short-term transactional relationship with Moscow.
But after North Korea deployed troops to Russia — a move in line with a mutual defense treaty the two signed this summer — and joined Moscow’s war efforts against Ukraine and, by default, against NATO and U.S. interests, Kim is viewed as engaged in an “all-in” relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin that comes with major risks.
Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea, said, “Kim Jong Un’s willingness to take these risks suggests he is ‘all in’ on the relationship with Moscow and prepared to make important sacrifices to show support for his Russian patron, in the hope that doing so will yield the benefits he seeks.”
Revere added, “This tells us a lot about what Kim is prepared to do to receive key military and space technologies. It remains to be seen whether Moscow is prepared to provide all the technologies and support Kim wants. If it does not, it will leave the North Korean ruler in a very difficult position.”
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell held talks Monday in Seoul and condemned North Korea’s troop deployment and possible military technology transfers Russia could make in return.
North Korea launched a Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile Thursday in demonstration of what it described as the “world’s most powerful strategic deterrent.”
In addition to technologies Kim might want to further advance Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs, North Korea will receive about $200 million from Moscow for its troop deployment, according to an estimate from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.
“North Korea is not necessarily wanting to back away from the relationship at the moment because it’s given a lifeline as well as a hedge partner against China,” said Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Kim is “willing to commit almost anything that Putin is willing to ask him to do at this point,” Ramani said.
Transactional relationship
Whether long term or short term, Dan DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, said, “Ties are still very much transactional in the sense that Kim expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to compensate him in some way, shape or form.”
However, DePetris said, “it’s unlikely North Korea will be comfortable putting all its chips in Russia’s basket,” as “betting on Russia over the long term would mean handcuffing North Korea to a single power, limiting the flexibility North Korean officials seek to maintain and giving Russia the ability to blackmail North Korea in the future.”
North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said Friday, when she met in Moscow with her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, that Pyongyang would fully back Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine until victory.
Choe also said Kim had already “instructed” North Korean officials to provide support for the Russian army “without regard to anyone” when Russia launched what she described as “the special military operation” against Ukraine in 2022.
In return, Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow’s “full support for North Korea’s measures aimed at countering the aggressive policies of the U.S. and its partners” and its commitment to implement the mutual defense treaty.
“We’ve long thought of North Korea as a rogue state, but the tight cooperation between Putin and Kim Jong Un now makes Russia look like a rogue state, too,” said Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations who served as U.S. ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union from 1997 to 2001.
