The Winter Meetings are officially in the books, and what typically proves to be the most eventful week of the baseball offseason more than lived up to the hype.
Juan Soto smashed the record books. Max Fried set a new benchmark for a left-hander. Then, after it looked again like the Red Sox might come home empty-handed, Craig Breslow made his move.
After weeks and months of promising this year would be different, the Red Sox finally acted on their promise to move aggressively, pulling off a blockbuster to land top lefty Garrett Crochet. The 25-year-old should immediately slot into the top of Boston’s rotation, giving the Red Sox a potential Cy Young contender who they hope can lead the club back to contention.
There should still be more moves to be made, but with the first major checkpoint of the offseason behind us, now is as good a time as any to look ahead and project how the Red Sox roster could look when the season begins.
Starting rotation
MLB: Garrett Crochet (L), Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Kutter Crawford
Triple-A depth: Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester (L)
Crochet is the type of premium talent the Red Sox have lacked since Chris Sale’s pre-injury run of dominance, and beyond giving the club a bona fide ace, he’ll also take loads of pressure off Boston’s incumbent starters, who can now bump down into positions where they are comparatively better-suited.
Tanner Houck was an All-Star last year, and he and Crochet will form one of the better 1-2 punches in MLB. Brayan Bello is still developing, and now he won’t have to shoulder the responsibility of being Boston’s ace the way he did last year when he was the club’s Opening Day starter. Lucas Giolito has been a front-of-the rotation guy before, and coming off elbow surgery he’ll now have time to settle in and rediscover his old form. And Kutter Crawford? You’ll take someone who just threw 183.2 innings with a 4.36 ERA as your No. 5 starter any day.
Beyond those five, the Red Sox have also assembled some impressive depth. Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Hunter Dobbins are all viable options to start in case anyone goes down, though one (probably Criswell) will likely start the season as a long-relief man out of the bullpen.
Could the Red Sox still add to this group? Sure. There have been rumors the Red Sox are exploring trade opportunities with the Seattle Mariners, likely for Luis Castillo, but even if the club doesn’t do anything else, they’ll go into 2025 with a playoff-caliber starting rotation.
Bullpen
MLB: Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman (L), Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Wilson (L), Greg Weissert, Luis Guerrero, Cooper Criswell
Triple-A depth: Brennan Bernardino (L), Cam Booser (L), Zack Kelly, Chris Murphy (L), Zach Penrod (L), Chase Shugart, Josh Winckowski
The Red Sox have already added a pair of lefties to their bullpen, signing veterans Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson to fortify a group that’s expected to lose closer Kenley Jansen and potentially set-up man Chris Martin in free agency. Those two will join a core that should include a healthy Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock as well as Justin Slaten, who was among the club’s top relievers as a rookie last season.
Those five are locked in, and we can say with a high degree of certainty that there will be a long-relief man in the group as well, which for now we’ll say will be Cooper Criswell. That leaves two more spots up for grabs, and the Red Sox have no shortage of internal options to choose from.
Greg Weissert and Luis Guerrero project as the preseason favorites given their utterly dominant finishes to last season, but Zack Kelly, Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser and Josh Winckowski have all enjoyed extended stretches of big league success too. No matter who starts the season in the bullpen, all of those guys and more will likely cycle through at one point or another, so having that much depth to lean on will be a boon for Boston.
Like with the starting rotation, the Red Sox have reached a point where they probably don’t need to add anyone else, but it still wouldn’t be a shock to see Breslow sign one more impact arm. Crucially, there’s nobody in the bullpen who stands out as an obvious closer, so the Red Sox could still raise their ceiling significantly by adding a lock-down ninth inning weapon, who like Crochet will help put everyone else around them in a better position to succeed.
Catcher
MLB: Connor Wong, external addition
Triple-A depth: Carlos Narvaez
The picture at catcher has radically changed for the Red Sox over the past week. Kyle Teel, once presumed the club’s heir apparent at the position, is now a member of the Chicago White Sox. Even before he was dealt as part of the Crochet blockbuster, the Red Sox were light at the position and were expected to bring in at least a stopgap option as a backup to Connor Wong until Teel was ready for primetime. Now, they may need more help than that.
The club already fortified the position by trading for former Yankees prospect Carlos Narvaez, but though he’s well regarded for his defense, he also has only six MLB games to his name. It’s likely the Red Sox will bring in at least one more option, likely a left-handed hitter who could platoon with Wong and compete for the back-up catcher spot with Narvaez in spring training.
Expect to see more action here before pitchers and catchers report in February.
Infielders
MLB: Triston Casas (1B), external addition (2B), Trevor Story (SS), Rafael Devers (3B), Romy Gonzalez (Util)
Triple-A depth: Kristian Campbell, Mickey Gasper, Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, Marcelo Mayer, Nick Sogard
While the pitching staff has come into sharper focus over the past week, the position player mix remains heavily in flux. We know the club seeks to add another right-handed bat, and we know there have been trade conversations involving a number of incumbent position players. How things ultimately shake out is difficult to say.
For our purposes though, I’m going to presume the club won’t trade Triston Casas. He has too much potential and is coming off a difficult, injury-plagued year, so the Red Sox wouldn’t be able to capitalize on his maximum value the way they would if they dealt someone like Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. At his best he could be a 40-homer guy, so if it were up to me I’d prefer to keep him around.
That would probably foreclose a trade for Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado, or any other move that might require Rafael Devers to shift to first base. The Red Sox have been adamant that’s not something being discussed, and if Casas remained the only way it could work is if the club dealt Masataka Yoshida to free up the designated hitter spot. Given his contract and injury situation, I don’t see Yoshida being moved at this point.
The idea of signing Alex Bregman to play second base is interesting though. He’s a highly productive player who bats right-handed and has 99 postseason games and two World Series rings to his name. He’d improve the club’s offense, defense and provide a massive boost in the clubhouse, giving the club the kind of championship experience it largely lacks. Boston could just as easily go with an internal option and have Kristian Campbell or Vaughn Grissom compete for the job in spring training, but if the club is intent on spending big money, Bregman would be a great choice.
Outfielders
MLB: External addition (LF), Jarren Duran (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), Masataka Yoshida (DH), Ceddanne Rafaela (INF/OF), Rob Refsnyder (OF)
Triple-A depth: Roman Anthony, Jhostynxon Garcia
This is a tricky one. On one hand, I think it’s highly likely the Red Sox add another bat in the outfield, whether it’s Teoscar Hernandez or someone else. On the other hand, I also think there’s a strong chance Wilyer Abreu could be traded, either for pitching or as part of some larger shakeup. I also think there’s a realistic chance Roman Anthony could win a starting job out of spring training, but it’s difficult for me to imagine all three of those things happening together.
The coming weeks will provide more clarity, but for now why don’t we stick with the most straightforward scenario, which is an external addition to complement the status quo.
Let’s say the Red Sox sign Teoscar Hernandez and he replaces Tyler O’Neill in left field. Jarren Duran then takes over full-time in center, Wilyer Abreu remains in right, and Ceddanne Rafaela moves into more of a utility role and late-inning defensive replacement. Masataka Yoshida sticks around as the full-time DH, Rob Refsnyder retains his bench role as the club’s designated lefty killer, and Roman Anthony starts the season in Triple-A for a little extra seasoning before inevitably making his MLB debut midseason.
If everything I’m projecting comes to pass — it won’t — the Red Sox starting lineup could look something like this: Jarren Duran CF, Alex Bregman 2B, Rafael Devers 3B, Teoscar Hernandez LF, Triston Casas 1B, Trevor Story SS, Masataka Yoshida DH, Wilyer Abreu RF, Connor Wong C.
What do you think? That certainly looks good on paper, but with two months to go before spring training and a lot of moves still to be made, the picture could look much different by the time pitchers and catchers report in February.
