Red-hot refinance demand retreats after tiny bump higher in mortgage rates

Mortgage rates moved ever so slightly higher last week, but it was enough to take a little heat out of what had been a briefly red-hot refinance market. That caused total mortgage application volume to fall 1.3% for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.  

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.14% from 6.13%, with points increasing to 0.61 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. The rate was 139 basis points higher the same week one year ago.

“Last week’s incoming data showed an economy that is still growing at a solid pace, even as inflation continues to decline. As a result, mortgage rates were up modestly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist in a release.

Applications to refinance a home loan fell 3% for the week but were still a striking 186% higher than the same week one year ago. The vast majority of borrowers today have mortgages with rates well below 5%, but those who may have purchased a home in the past year or two might be able to benefit from a refinance to today’s lower rates.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 1% for the week and were 9% higher than the same week one year ago. The fall market does appear to be warming up a little bit, with real estate brokerages like Redfin reporting more home tours in the last few weeks. Some buyers, however, may be sitting on the sidelines, expecting rates to move even lower in the coming months.

“Inventories of both new and existing homes have been increasing over the course of 2024, meaning that potential buyers have properties to look at and now have somewhat lower mortgage rates leading to better affordability,” Fratantoni added.  

Mortgage rates moved very slightly lower again to start this week, as bond yields dipped following escalations in the bombing in the Middle East conflict. The next big move in interest rates could come Friday, with the release of the all-important monthly employment report.