As Tropical Storm Oscar heads toward the Bahamas, meteorologists are eyeing an area in the Caribbean for activity that could become Tropical Storm Patty next week.
AccuWeather published a report about the threat on Monday, noting that the report was for an advanced risk development zone in the Caribbean that could provide the right conditions for Tropical Storm Patty to form next week.
“We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in the report.
AccuWeather
The AccuWeather report said that storms forming in this region in late October or early November typically hit Central America or curve north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. If the storm follows the latter path, it could bring even more damage to Cuba, which was lashed with rain and wind from Tropical Storm Oscar on Sunday evening. The most recent National Hurricane Center (NHC) update said that Oscar’s maximum sustained wind speeds were 40 mph, and that the storm would continue to bring life-threatening floods across parts of Cuba through midweek.
Regarding potential Tropical Storm Patty, it is too soon to determine the direct path. The NHC has yet to issue a forecast about the potential threat. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Carl Erickson told Newsweek that it’s unlikely the storm will take aim at the U.S.
The new tropical threat comes several weeks after Florida saw back-to-back major hurricanes, first with Hurricane Helene in late September, then Hurricane Milton almost two weeks later, both of which underwent rapid intensification before landfall. Helene made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region before cutting inland and wreaking havoc across the U.S. Southeast, particularly in North Carolina. Milton hit near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane before whipping across the Sunshine State.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs through November. AccuWeather meteorologists warned that water temperatures remain warm in the Caribbean, which could provide energy for future tropical systems that form there. When paired with low wind shear, meteorologists said Patty could form, albeit slowly, similar to Nadine and Oscar.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a forecast predicting 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. In August, the agency slightly updated its forecast and now expects 17 to 24 this season.
As of Monday, there have been 15 named storms this hurricane season.
