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Why the Austin mayoral race is still too close to call

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AUSTIN (KXAN) — Almost 350,000 votes have been tabulated in Austin’s mayoral election. With unofficial results fully reported, KXAN is still unable to make a projection in this race — and we want you to know why.

According to the Travis County Clerk’s Office, there are three types of ballots still outstanding:

  • Mail-in ballots that were postmarked by 7 p.m. on Tuesday and received by 5 p.m. Wednesday
  • Overseas and military mail-in ballots that arrive by Tuesday, Nov. 12
  • Provisional ballots that have not yet been processed

Incumbent Mayor Kirk Watson currently has 50.01% of the vote. A candidate must receive more than 50% to avoid a runoff. There are still ballots left to be counted, which means Watson could win outright or be forced into a runoff with second-place Carmen Llanes Pulido.

The Travis County Clerk’s Office said there are about 6,000 mail ballots that were sent out but have not yet been returned, and it’s unclear how many of those will be received by the deadline. In addition, there are about 3,200 provisional ballots that still need to be reviewed before it’s determined whether they will be counted.

Late-arriving ballots are also possible in Williamson and Hays County, but those totals are expected to be much lower than in Travis County.

Both Travis and Williamson County told KXAN they expect official results to be released by the end of next week, after the canvas.

Watson released a statement Wednesday, acknowledging the race is “not quite over.” Watson wrote he’d received 50.1% of the vote, as of Wednesday morning. KXAN’s numbers show Watson currently has 50.01% of the vote.

Unfortunately, I’ve had to let folks know that there are still some chickens hatching. As of now, the vote tally has us with 50.1%, but we learned in the very early morning hours that there are still a few thousand uncounted provisional and mail-in ballots, and we don’t yet know exactly when we’ll have a final total.

What we do know – and knew from the beginning – is that with five candidates in our race, it would be extraordinary to win without a run-off. We also know that our campaign did great, earning over 100,000 more votes than the second-place finisher. That’s more votes than were cast in all of Travis County on Election Day – a huge margin.

But, it’s not over until it’s over – and it’s not quite over. We’re obviously hopeful that the final tally will keep us on top of 50%, but if it turns out we have a run-off race, you can be sure that we’re 100% ready to go.  We’ll let you know as soon as we do.

Watson statement

Carmen Llanes Pulido also released a statement Wednesday acknowledging the tightness of the race.

The race remains incredibly close, with the incumbent avoiding a runoff with just a few dozen votes, and thousands of ballots still awaiting analysis. Official results haven’t been declared, and a runoff is still very much on the table. We may not have a final answer for a few days—or even early next week—as counting wraps up.

We’ll keep you updated as soon as we know more about what’s next.

In the meantime, please remember to take care of yourselves and stay connected with loved ones. Enjoy this beautiful weather. These are challenging times, and your well being matters. Thank you all for your support and commitment to building a better future for our communities.

Llanes Pulido statement

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